Boeing forecasts that the global freighter fleet will grow 67%, from 2,395 aircraft in 2025 to 4,010 by 2045, as air-cargo traffic doubles over the next two decades. The projection, released at The International Air Cargo Association’s Air Cargo Forum in Miami, points to demand for 2,930 new and converted freighters to support capacity growth and replace retiring aircraft.
Air-cargo traffic is expected to increase by about 3.5% annually through 2045, driven by e-commerce, direct-to-consumer business models, evolving supply chains and shipments of advanced technology and artificial-intelligence-related products. Approximately 55% of the required freighters will support traffic growth, while 45% will replace older aircraft.
Passenger-to-freighter conversions are expected to account for about two-thirds of deliveries, with new-production freighters making up the remainder. Dedicated freighters are projected to carry more than half of global air-cargo traffic in the long term, while integrators could represent nearly 25% of the market by 2045.
Trade flows involving Asia are expected to account for about 60% of the global market. East Asia–North America is projected to remain the largest international air-freight flow, while South Asia–East Asia is expected to be the fastest-growing market.