Reuters’ Breakingviews argues that Europe’s fragmented airline market is moving towards a more consolidated, higher-fare structure, but the shift is likely to take years rather than happen quickly. The analysis points to a sector still dominated by separate national and regional interests, even as strategic deals and ownership battles begin to reshape the landscape.
The commentary cites the $8 billion easyJet buyout and the fight for a 44.9% stake in TAP as signs that consolidation is already under way. Air France-KLM and Lufthansa remain central to the contest for TAP, while Ryanair, IAG, Lufthansa and Air France-KLM are seen as the main groups likely to influence how the market develops. Reuters contrasts this with the United States, where post-2008 mergers left four dominant carriers.
Europe’s top six airline groups still account for only about 70% of domestic market share, leaving far more room for change than in the US. Michael O’Leary has long argued the market could eventually narrow to four major groups, though the timing remains uncertain. Reuters’ view is that rising costs and deal activity point to a more disciplined industry, even if a full shakeout is still some way off.