Cirium expects about 43,000 new commercial passenger and freighter aircraft to be delivered worldwide between 2026 and 2045, valued at approximately US$3.2 trillion in 2026 dollars. The latest Fleet Forecast reduces the previous projection by 3,500 aircraft, or around 7.5%, as production constraints, supply-chain disruption and limited engine capacity restrict manufacturers’ ability to meet airline demand.
The earlier forecast envisaged 46,500 deliveries worth US$3.4 trillion in 2025 dollars. The latest total covers passenger and freighter jets and turboprops, including approximately 32,675 single-aisle aircraft, 6,965 twin-aisle aircraft, 1,565 turboprops, 1,170 regional jets and 747 freighters.
Cirium attributes the lower outlook to persistent supply-chain problems, constrained engine availability, certification delays affecting new aircraft programmes, geopolitical uncertainty and weaker passenger-traffic expectations in some markets. The imbalance between airline demand and manufacturers’ production capacity is expected to continue through the remainder of the 2020s.
Despite the reduced delivery estimate, the global passenger fleet is projected to exceed 50,000 aircraft by 2045. Fleet growth is forecast at a compound annual rate of 3.2%, marginally below the previous estimate of 3.3%, as replacement demand and long-term traffic growth continue to support fleet expansion.