Boeing forecasts that global air-cargo traffic will double over the next 20 years, driving the worldwide freighter fleet from 2,395 aircraft in 2025 to 4,010 in 2045. The projection, presented at the International Air Cargo Association’s Air Cargo Forum in Miami, points to average annual cargo growth of 3.5% and demand for 2,930 new and converted freighters.
E-commerce, supply-chain diversification, advanced-manufacturing shipments and demand for artificial-intelligence hardware are expected to support growth. Changing trade lanes and geopolitical disruption are also prompting carriers to adapt their networks, while time-sensitive, high-value technology shipments are sustaining demand for dedicated freighter capacity.
About 55% of the required deliveries would expand the fleet, while the remaining 45% would replace retiring aircraft. Passenger-to-freighter conversions are expected to account for roughly two-thirds of deliveries, with new-production freighters making up the balance.
Dedicated freighters are projected to carry more than half of global air-cargo traffic in the long term. Asia-related trade flows are expected to remain a major growth driver: the East Asia–North America market, currently the largest international air-cargo flow, is forecast to nearly double by 2045, while South Asia–East Asia is expected to be the fastest-growing market, expanding 3.2 times.