Ryanair has trimmed its fiscal 2027 passenger target to 214 million from 216 million after scaling back winter capacity to limit exposure to higher unhedged jet fuel costs linked to Middle East conflict-driven oil price gains. The Dublin-based airline expects winter traffic to be broadly flat year on year, while the reduction should help cut winter losses by about €70 million to €100 million across its European short-haul network.
The budget carrier, Europe’s largest by traffic, still expects to remain profitable in the year ending 31 March 2027. Around 80% of its fuel needs for the period are already hedged at about $67 per barrel, which limits but does not eliminate the effect of higher crude prices. Ryanair also warned that if oil remains elevated, short-haul fares in Europe may rise materially, particularly on weaker routes and among smaller rivals with less protection against fuel volatility.
Despite the weaker full-year passenger outlook, summer 2027 traffic is still projected to rise by more than 5% to 145 million passengers. The airline’s revised plan leaves route-level schedule cuts unspecified, but the move points to tighter capacity discipline across Europe’s low-cost sector as carriers manage margins through a period of volatile energy costs.