Global air passenger demand fell by 3.4% in April 2026 compared with April 2025, as the war in the Middle East pushed the market into its first year-on-year contraction since the post-Covid recovery phase. The decline, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), follows a still-positive but already weakened 2.1% increase in March.
The shock is concentrated on Middle Eastern carriers, whose traffic has collapsed under the combined effect of airspace closures and forced reroutings around Iran, Iraq, Israel and parts of the Gulf. These disruptions affect key Europe–Asia, Asia–Africa and Americas–Middle East flows, with extended flight times, higher operating costs, schedule adjustments, frequency cuts and, in some cases, route suspensions.
In March, international traffic from Middle East airlines had already dropped by about 60.8%, driving the first decline in global international RPKs since March 2021, despite continued growth in most other regions and resilient domestic markets such as China and Brazil. The global load factor reached a record 83.6% for a March, reflecting constrained capacity rather than strong growth.
IATA stresses that demand outside the Middle East remained in positive territory in April, but the regional collapse was sufficient to pull the worldwide figure into negative growth. The association reiterates the aviation sector’s vulnerability to geopolitical shocks and calls for airspace restrictions to be limited strictly to what is required for safety.