Europe’s jet-fuel inventories cover demand for less than 30 days, the tightest balance among major global markets, with a potential supply deficit of nearly 600,000 barrels per day in Q3 2026 if Strait of Hormuz flows halt again[2][7][13]. The US–Iran ceasefire declared mid-June is now ending, with strikes resumed, threatening to cut off up to 40% of European jet-fuel supply previously routed through the chokepoint[1][5][8]. Operators have averted shortage so far by importing record 673,000 bpd in June and boosting refinery output, but reliance on US imports must extend beyond summer as stocks tighten toward end of holiday season[1][2][24]. Airlines and private jet operators are on high alert; EU may coordinate releases of national reserves if inventories dip below critical thresholds by August[2][24].