Airlines will continue to face a shortage of new commercial aircraft until at least 2030 as Airbus and Boeing struggle to match demand with production capacity, aviation analytics company Cirium forecasts. Its latest 2026–2045 Fleet Forecast projects about 43,000 deliveries worth $3.2 trillion at 2026 prices, down from 46,500 in last year’s outlook, with manufacturing constraints rather than weaker long-term demand driving the reduction.
Cirium expects the supply-demand mismatch seen over the past five years to persist through the rest of the 2020s. Engine availability, supply-chain bottlenecks and extended certification timelines are limiting output, while airlines and lessors compete for delivery positions years in advance.
The forecast covers passenger and freighter jets and turboprops, with single-aisle aircraft accounting for about 32,675 deliveries, or 76% of the total. The global passenger fleet is expected to exceed 50,000 aircraft by 2045.
The constrained supply is delaying fleet renewal and capacity expansion. Airlines are retaining older aircraft for longer, increasing exposure to maintenance and leasing costs while waiting for more fuel-efficient jets. IATA has reported that airlines were already short of more than 5,000 aircraft they had expected to receive, while the global order backlog exceeded 18,000 aircraft and average fleet age reached a record 15.2 years.
Avolon’s order for 250 Airbus and Boeing aircraft in October illustrates the long-term competition for production slots. The lessor ordered 140 Boeing 737 Max aircraft and 110 Airbus jets, including A320neo-family and A330neo aircraft, taking its firm commitments to 749 aircraft.