Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary warned in Dublin on Thursday that sustained high oil prices could trigger a significant rise in European short-haul airfares into next year and as far as summer 2027. He also described near-term pricing as uncertain, with fares expected to be only modestly lower in the second quarter but “entirely up in the air” for the December and March quarters.
The warning comes as Ryanair trims winter capacity and faces weaker visibility on demand, with fuel costs a key variable for the low-cost carrier and its less well hedged rivals. Ryanair has covered about 80% of its jet fuel needs through March 2027 at roughly $67 a barrel, limiting its own exposure compared with competitors that remain more vulnerable to market volatility.
The airline has indicated that if oil prices stay elevated through summer 2027, short-haul fares across Europe could rise materially as airlines pass on higher operating costs or reduce capacity. O’Leary’s outlook leaves the scale and timing of any fare increases unclear, but it points to continued pressure on pricing through the winter and into next year.