Global sustainable aviation fuel production is forecast to reach 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, unchanged from IATA’s previous estimate and still only 0.8% of total airline fuel demand. The association said the outlook remains disappointing because supply is far below what the aviation sector needs.
IATA published the update on 2026-06-06, alongside its AGM and industry briefing. The forecast covers 2026 production and underscores that SAF remains one of the airline industry’s main near-term decarbonization tools, but output is still too limited to make a material impact on emissions reduction.
The release points to a persistent gap between aviation’s net zero ambitions and available SAF volumes. Aviation Week said the expected 2.4 million tonnes would equal only 0.8% of total commercial aviation use and could cost airlines about $4.3 billion.