HSBC Research projects Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern will operate at a loss for the first half of 2026, contrasting with Cathay Pacific’s expected profitability driven by premium long-haul and cargo demand. The divergence stems from muted domestic demand and elevated jet fuel prices pressuring mainland operators, while Cathay benefits from inelastic premium travel and strong freight rates. Market data confirms the trend: Cathay Pacific shares rose while mainland airline stocks trailed, reflecting investor confidence in Hong Kong’s carrier resilience. The Big Three face domestic oversupply and low yields, with China Southern forecasting a steeper loss than the prior year. Cathay’s 237-aircraft fleet and 100+ destinations support its premium network advantage, positioning it ahead of mainland peers amid sector-wide fuel volatility.