Corporate purchases of sustainable aviation fuel Environmental Attribute Certificates could support between 1.0 million and 1.9 million tonnes of SAF in 2030, up from an estimated 323,000 tonnes in 2024, under a market forecast from IATA, Airbus and Accenture. The certificates would allow companies to address Scope 3 emissions from business travel and air freight even when the fuel is used elsewhere in the aviation system.
The projected volume is a potential demand signal rather than a confirmed order, binding procurement commitment or guaranteed production level. It could help distribute SAF’s additional cost across more participants in the aviation value chain and encourage producers to expand capacity.
Only about 15% of surveyed companies currently purchase SAF certificates. Unclear emissions-accounting rules, high prices and complex procurement processes remain barriers to wider participation. Certificate prices generally range from US$150 to US$500 per tonne of avoided carbon-dioxide equivalent, while companies indicate a willingness to pay about US$300.
Airlines account for approximately 53% of corporate SAF-certificate purchases, making them the largest source for companies addressing emissions associated with business travel and air freight. The study calls for consistent accounting rules, interoperable tracking systems to prevent double counting and simpler purchasing arrangements, including greater price transparency, lower minimum volumes and shorter contracts. Global SAF production is expected to reach about 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, equivalent to roughly 0.8% of aviation-fuel use.