Airbus forecasts that global demand for aviation services will more than double from 2026 to over US$420 billion annually by 2045, driven by fleet expansion, rising passenger traffic and increasing maintenance requirements. The Toulouse-based manufacturer’s Global Services Forecast covers commercial passenger aircraft with more than 100 seats and freighters carrying over 10 tonnes of payload, with the market expected to grow at a 3.8% compound annual rate.
Airbus projects the global commercial fleet will reach 45,550 aircraft by 2045, while annual passenger numbers double to 10 billion. The ageing and expanding fleet will increase demand for repair facilities, parts, engineering support and other services, while digital and connectivity requirements will also grow.
The forecast identifies six service segments and newly includes maintenance operations support, covering inventory provision and engineering assistance for airworthiness and reliability. Off-wing maintenance is expected to be the largest segment at US$217 billion, followed by maintenance operations support at US$104 billion, on-wing maintenance at US$36 billion, digital and connectivity services at US$27 billion, modifications and upgrades at US$21 billion, and training at US$17 billion.
Digital and connectivity services are projected to be the fastest-growing segment, expanding at 5.3% annually and tripling in value by 2045. The industry will also require more than 2.44 million additional skilled workers, including 730,000 maintenance technicians, 660,000 pilots and 1.05 million cabin crew. Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, North America and China are expected to remain the largest markets, while Asia is forecast to grow fastest.