Airbus forecasts 42,060 new aircraft by 2045 driven by urbanization

Airbus projects demand for 42,060 new passenger aircraft between 2026 and 2045, with air traffic doubling to 10 billion passengers annually. This growth stems from urbanization shifting toward smaller cities, which will expand at nearly triple the rate of larger urban centers, creating new economically viable city pairs. Single-aisle aircraft dominate the forecast at 81% of demand, reflecting operators’ need to connect emerging markets efficiently. Fleet replacement accounts for 19,820 units, driven by aging aircraft and rising fuel costs, while 22,240 units support growth. The Asia-Pacific region, particularly India, leads demand as GDP grows 2.6% annually and the middle class expands by 1.4 billion people. By 2045, nearly 100% of the global fleet will comprise newest-generation aircraft, enhancing efficiency on thinner routes.