European airfares could rise by 10%, 15% or as much as 20% over the next 12 months, Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary warned in Brussels on Tuesday. The forecast covers 2027 and reflects sharply higher jet-fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict, limited airline hedging and fewer available seats following bankruptcies and takeovers. O’Leary described the potential increase as the largest in European aviation history.
Ryanair has hedged about 80% of its fuel requirements through March 2027 at approximately $67 per barrel. Coverage falls to 15% for the subsequent period, secured at $85 per barrel, while spot prices are around twice that level, O’Leary indicated. He said most European airlines faced similarly limited protection as existing contracts expire from April 2027.
Higher fuel costs could pressure airline margins and prompt carriers to reduce capacity, while industry failures and consolidation would further restrict seat availability. Those conditions could strengthen airlines’ ability to pass increased operating costs on to passengers.
The 10–20% range is O’Leary’s market forecast, rather than an implemented fare increase or an independently verified industry-wide projection. The claim that it would be the largest increase in history has not been established separately.