The Iran war has triggered a structural vulnerability for African operators, with jet fuel prices rising 17% above global averages and straining supply chains at major hubs like Nairobi and Addis Ababa. Fuel now accounts for 30% to 40% of operating costs, forcing carriers to absorb losses or impose surcharges they cannot pass to passengers without crushing demand. AFRAA warns that thin margins and limited hedging ability prevent airlines from mitigating procurement spikes, while shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz exacerbate the crisis. Operators must accelerate domestic refining capacity to reduce import dependence, as the sector faces sustained margin erosion rather than a temporary price spike.