Europe appears set to avoid a broad jet fuel shortage in the final quarter as increased imports from Asia boost supply, but smaller airports remain exposed and airlines still face pressure from elevated fuel costs. The main commercial risk for carriers is margin erosion rather than grounded aircraft, with regional hubs in the UK and France singled out as more vulnerable because they have less storage, fewer suppliers and weaker logistics flexibility.
Trade intelligence data show that almost 900,000 tonnes of jet fuel are due to arrive in Europe from Asia in the coming months, helping offset disruption to Middle East supply routes. Seasonal demand is also expected to ease from November, which should further reduce the risk of a physical shortage. Even so, prices are likely to stay high, leaving fuel as a major operating-cost challenge for European airlines.
Exposure is uneven across the market. Airlines with weaker hedging positions face the sharpest hit, while carriers serving smaller airports may encounter local supply tightness even if the continent as a whole remains adequately supplied. Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary has ruled out a fuel surcharge, but expects some rivals to pass higher costs through to passengers next summer.