EASA has published a new report on atmospheric icing that finds the hazard remains insufficiently understood despite progress in forecasting, with climate change potentially reshaping where, when and how severely ice accretion affects aircraft. The study, issued through the agency’s EN-ICCA initiative, focuses on aviation-relevant weather hazards and identifies persistent gaps in observations, modelling and cloud microphysics that still limit certification, operations and meteorological support.
The report highlights two principal challenges: predicting icing severity and identifying in-flight ice crystal conditions. It points to limits in observational coverage, model resolution and the representation of cloud microphysics, all of which constrain confidence in current assessments. While future icing trends are still uncertain, the initial research reviewed by EASA indicates that climate change could influence the frequency, altitude and severity of icing conditions.
To narrow those gaps, EASA recommends two follow-on workstreams. One centres on improving icing indices and the input data used in climatology studies. The other calls for climatological analyses based on reanalysis and climate-model outputs. The findings are relevant for aircraft certification, operational safety and weather forecasting as the sector assesses how to adapt to changing atmospheric hazards.