Airbus expects global demand for commercial aviation services to more than double from US$209 billion in 2026 to approximately US$422 billion by 2045, driven by fleet expansion, an ageing aircraft population and rising demand for maintenance, upgrades, training and digital support. The forecast covers passenger aircraft with more than 100 seats and freighters above 10 tonnes, with the worldwide fleet projected to reach 45,550 aircraft by 2045.
Digital and connectivity services are forecast to be the fastest-growing segment, increasing from about US$10 billion in 2026 to US$27 billion in 2045 at a compound annual growth rate of 5.3%. The category includes inflight entertainment and connectivity, cybersecurity, and digital tools for flight, ground and technical operations.
Maintenance is expected to remain the largest services activity, alongside off-wing and on-wing maintenance, maintenance-operations support, modifications and upgrades, and training. Airbus projects the overall market to grow at 3.8% annually.
The manufacturer expects connected operations to improve maintenance agility, fleet availability and disruption management. Artificial intelligence, machine learning and real-time connectivity could reduce by up to 30% the costs associated with delays and cancellations, which Airbus estimates will reach about US$24 billion by 2045. Cristina Aguilar Grieder, Airbus senior vice-president for Customer Services Commercial Aircraft, identified predictive operations, fleet modernisation and digital solutions as priorities for improving reliability, safety and long-term operating performance.