Airbus forecasts that the global fleet of dedicated freighter aircraft will grow 46% over the next two decades, rising from 2,360 aircraft in 2025 to 3,460 by 2045. The projection, presented at the Cargo Facts Symposium in Toulouse, includes demand for 2,670 additional freighters as operators replace ageing aircraft and expand capacity, including through the A350F and passenger-to-freighter conversions.
Of the projected requirement, 1,580 aircraft would replace older freighters and 1,090 would support net fleet growth. Airbus expects the total to comprise 1,140 single-aisle aircraft, 860 medium-sized widebodies and 670 large widebodies.
Conversions would account for 1,700 aircraft, compared with 970 new-build freighters. The conversion market is expected to include aircraft from the A320, A321 and A330 families, while the A350F represents Airbus’s principal new-generation freighter programme.
The forecast assumes global trade will expand at a compound annual rate of 2.9%, supporting annual air-cargo traffic growth of 3.2% through 2045. North America is expected to generate demand for 925 freighters, followed by Asia-Pacific with 850, together representing about two-thirds of the projected requirement.
The figures represent Airbus’s market forecast rather than firm orders or contracted deliveries, and the 2,670-aircraft requirement includes both fleet replacement and expansion.