Eurocontrol has lowered its 2026 forecast for air traffic across the 44-country European Civil Aviation Conference area to 11.2 million flights, representing year-on-year growth of 1.7%. The revised outlook, down from 2.7% in the spring, reflects weaker demand linked to Middle East tensions, longer routings and higher jet-fuel costs. The crisis is expected to eliminate about 110,000 flight movements this year.
European aviation remained resilient during the summer, with record daily traffic levels and historically high load factors. Growth was uneven, however, as southern and eastern European markets outperformed major northwestern European markets.
Eurocontrol expects growth to recover to 3.2% in 2027, taking traffic to approximately 11.6 million flights. The increase will begin from a lower 2026 base, leaving absolute traffic below the level anticipated in the previous forecast. Recovery is expected to be particularly strong in markets affected by the disruption, including Türkiye and parts of the eastern Mediterranean.
The medium-term outlook remains positive, with ECAC traffic forecast to expand by an average of 2.1% annually between 2026 and 2032, reaching about 12.8 million flights. Geopolitical developments, airspace restrictions, energy prices, airline costs and demand remain significant sources of uncertainty. In the week from 5 to 11 October, European network traffic averaged 33,491 flights a day, unchanged from the same period in 2025, while Europe–Middle East traffic remained 14% below year-earlier levels.