Boeing forecasts China’s commercial aircraft fleet will more than double to 9,830 by 2045, with airlines taking delivery of 9,240 new aircraft over the 20-year period from 2026. The projection, released in Beijing, anticipates annual passenger air-travel growth of 5%. Boeing expects 42% of deliveries to replace older aircraft, with the remainder supporting fleet growth.
Single-aisle aircraft account for 7,215 of the projected deliveries, alongside 1,460 widebodies, 405 regional aircraft and 160 freighters. Boeing links demand for single-aisle jets to growth in domestic and Asia-Pacific regional travel, while long-haul traffic is expected to support widebody demand. The company also projects a fleet of 560 production and converted freighters by 2045, including aircraft for replacement and additional capacity.
Boeing estimates Chinese airlines will invest $875 billion over the period in digital services, maintenance and personnel training. It projects the aviation sector will need 425,000 new pilots, technicians and cabin crew. The forecast attributes expected travel growth to an expanding middle class, more visa-free destinations and continued investment in aviation infrastructure.
China currently has nearly 4,500 commercial jets, according to Boeing, making it the world’s second-largest national fleet. The delivery and workforce figures are long-term projections, not confirmed orders or hiring commitments.