airBaltic requires a material equity injection to sustain operations, with Fitch Ratings forecasting negative free cash flow of approximately €156 million in 2026 before external funding. The agency placed the Latvian carrier’s CCC- IDR and €380 million senior secured bonds on Rating Watch Negative, citing mounting debt and restructuring risks. Management previously estimated a €100-150 million capital need for the 2026/2027 winter season, now confirmed as critical by the Prime Minister. While an agreement in principle exists with Castlelake for expansion to 100 aircraft by 2030, final terms remain unfinalized. The airline reduced its fleet to 54 Airbus A220-300s in late June 2026 and cut board salaries to conserve cash, yet current liabilities exceed assets by €415.1 million.