Airbus projects the global dedicated freighter fleet will grow 46%, from 2,360 aircraft in 2026 to 3,460 by 2045, as airlines and cargo operators replace ageing aircraft and expand capacity. The forecast, presented at the Cargo Facts Symposium, points to demand for 2,670 freighters over the period, including 1,580 replacements and 1,090 aircraft for fleet growth.
Passenger-to-freighter conversions are expected to account for 1,700 aircraft, while 970 will be new-build freighters. The requirement comprises 1,140 single-aisle aircraft, 860 midsize widebody freighters and 670 large widebody freighters.
North America is forecast to represent the largest regional requirement, at 925 aircraft, followed by Asia-Pacific with 850. Together, the regions will generate roughly two-thirds of projected demand. Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States are expected to require 515 freighters, while Latin America, the Middle East and Africa will account for 165, 125 and 90 respectively.
Airbus forecasts global air-cargo traffic will grow by 3.2% annually over the next two decades, ahead of projected global trade growth of 2.9% a year. Asia-Pacific is expected to remain the leading international air-cargo market, with routes linking the region and North America forming the largest major flow.