Cirium expects the global passenger-aircraft fleet to expand from about 26,700 aircraft to 50,200 by 2045, an increase of 88%, as airlines continue to require new capacity and replacement aircraft. The aviation analytics company forecasts 42,375 passenger-aircraft deliveries over the period, while its broader outlook includes about 43,000 new passenger, freighter and turboprop aircraft worth approximately US$3.2 trillion in 2026 dollars.
Around 55% of passenger-aircraft deliveries will support fleet growth and 45% will replace aircraft leaving service. Passenger-fleet growth is forecast at a compound annual rate of 3.2%, slightly below the previous 3.3% estimate.
Single-aisle aircraft will dominate demand, accounting for about 77% of deliveries. The global narrowbody fleet is expected to increase from roughly 18,300 aircraft to 38,800, while China, India and the wider Asia-Pacific region together are projected to receive about 48% of passenger-fleet allocation.
The delivery outlook is lower than Cirium’s previous estimate of about 46,500 aircraft, primarily because manufacturing and supply-chain constraints are limiting production rather than because of weaker long-term demand. Engine availability, supplier bottlenecks, extended certification timelines, higher costs and geopolitical uncertainty are expected to keep aircraft supply below demand through the remainder of the 2020s.
Airlines are therefore likely to retain older aircraft for longer, with average retirement ages during the constrained-delivery period estimated at about 24 years for narrowbodies and nearly 23 years for widebodies. The A320neo family and 737 MAX are expected to remain central to airline fleets for most of the forecast period, with next-generation Airbus and Boeing single-aisle aircraft modelled to enter service from around 2040.