European low-cost carriers face no anticipated jet fuel cost relief despite a tentative Strait of Hormuz reopening, as the corridor remains fragile and crack spreads stay wide. Brent crude eased to $78.2 on 17 June 2026 following the US-Iran deal, yet jet fuel prices hold near $141/bbl, with crack spreads averaging $57/barrel at historic highs. Legacy operators locked in summer 2026 fuel at pre-crisis prices, but LCCs lack such hedging and carry only 5–6 weeks of inventory. Goldman Sachs’ base case projected Europe’s jet fuel stocks falling below the IEA’s 23-day shortage threshold in June 2026 if Hormuz stayed closed; the reopening reduced this risk, yet fragility prevents cost stabilization. European jet fuel now costs $1,840 per tonne as of 8 June 2026, with inventory lows projected for August 2026.