The International Energy Agency sees the oil market flipping from a 2026 deficit to a 2027 surplus of more than 5 million barrels a day. Supply rises about 8 million barrels a day as Middle East output and exports recover after the Iran war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
That reset should ease jet fuel pricing after a year of corridor disruptions and refinery strain. For airlines, cheaper crude should feed through to lower fuel burn costs, giving operators more room to absorb labour inflation, delivery delays and airspace restrictions while protecting margins on thin routes.
The forecast still hinges on a fragile regional normalisation.