IATA has cut its 2026 profit outlook for the global airline industry, saying net earnings will fall to $23.0 billion as higher fuel costs and Middle East disruption weigh on performance. The revised forecast, released in Rio de Janeiro on 7 June, implies industry profits will be roughly half the level expected for 2025.
The association said net profit margin is now forecast at 2.0% in 2026, down from 4.2% in 2025, while net profit per passenger is expected to drop to $4.50 from $9.10. Operating profit is projected at $48.0 billion, compared with $76.4 billion a year earlier, as airlines face a sharp rise in fuel expenditure.
IATA said fuel costs are expected to climb nearly 40% to $350 billion in 2026, from $252 billion in 2025. The group said the deterioration in the outlook is being driven by war-related disruption in the Middle East and rising fuel prices, while warning that the forecast remains dependent on geopolitical and cost conditions that could still change.