The International Air Transport Association has cut its 2026 net profit forecast for the global airline industry to $23.0 billion, about half its previous estimate, as war-related disruptions in the Middle East and rising fuel costs weigh on earnings.
IATA said the revised outlook is well below the $41 billion it had previously projected and compares with an expected $45 billion in net profit for 2025. The association also lowered its net profit margin view to 2.0% from 3.9%, while keeping a positive revenue outlook.
The group said airlines are still expected to generate $48.0 billion in operating profit in 2026, with an operating margin of 4.1% and a return on invested capital of 4.3%, below the 8.5% weighted average cost of capital it cites. IATA also put net profit per passenger at $4.50, roughly half the 2025 level.