SAS has warned that insufficient supplies of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) risk plunging the aviation industry into a new energy crisis amid escalating conventional fuel shortages.
The alert comes as a Middle East conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran drives jet fuel prices above $220 per barrel in Europe, with Brent crude exceeding $100. Airlines across the globe, including 19 of the world’s 20 largest, have slashed capacity, with global flight plans for May dropping three percentage points since early March, according to Cirium data.
SAS itself canceled around 1,000 flights in April after prices doubled in 10 days, as stated by CEO Anko van der Werff. The carrier focused cuts on domestic Norwegian routes, while rival Norwegian added services to Spanish destinations amid shifting demand. Lufthansa plans to eliminate 20,000 short-haul flights through October to conserve over 40,000 metric tons of fuel.
IATA Director General Willie Walsh cautioned of potential European cancellations by late May due to shortages, though EU Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas attributed existing cuts to high costs, not supply deficits. Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary warned of disruptions in May or June if the war persists.
European industry observers view the crisis as a catalyst for SAF investment, highlighting airlines’ heavy reliance on Middle Eastern fossil fuels and the need to advance decarbonization goals.