Global air cargo demand fell 4.8 percent in March compared to the previous year, driven primarily by severe disruptions in the Middle East, according to the International Air Transport Association.
The decline, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers, marked a 5.5 percent drop for international operations, while capacity decreased 4.7 percent overall and 6.8 percent for international routes. Middle Eastern carriers experienced the sharpest contraction, with demand plunging 54.3 percent year-on-year and capacity falling 52.4 percent. Escalating conflicts led to widespread airspace closures and flight cancellations at key Gulf hubs including Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi.
Willie Walsh, IATA director general, attributed the downturn mainly to these disruptions, compounded by the typical post-Lunar New Year slowdown. He noted that underlying demand trends remain strong, supported by upward revisions to global trade and GDP forecasts for 2026.
Regional performances varied widely. African airlines posted the strongest growth at 7.0 percent in demand, despite a 4.6 percent capacity drop. Asia-Pacific carriers saw 5.4 percent demand growth with 5.0 percent more capacity. Europe recorded 2.2 percent demand increase and 4.2 percent capacity rise, while North America faced a 1.2 percent demand decline with 1.1 percent less capacity. Latin American and Caribbean carriers gained 1.8 percent in demand and 5.1 percent in capacity.
Trade lanes showed divergence, with Africa-Asia, Asia-Europe, and intra-Asia routes leading growth, contrasted by heavy impacts on Gulf-linked corridors. Supporting factors included 3.1 percent global industrial production growth, 8.0 percent rise in goods trade, and a manufacturing PMI of 51.4 in March, though jet fuel prices surged 106.6 percent year-on-year.