The U.S.-Iran cease-fire framework may cool oil and jet fuel volatility, but airlines are still facing a 2026 earnings reset. IATA now sees net profit at $23 billion, a 2.0% margin, after Middle East disruption, higher fuel costs, and rerouted lift cut into returns.
Passenger demand is still forecast to grow 2.1%, yet the regional hit is uneven. The Middle East is projected to contract 11.4% in traffic, while Africa and Asia-Pacific absorb diverted flows. Fuel remains the swing factor, with costs set to jump sharply and crack spreads already at record levels.
If Hormuz reopening slips, the sector keeps the turbulence.