Europe faces a potential jet fuel crisis with stocks covering as little as three weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to the US-Israel war on Iran. Airports and airlines are pivoting to US oil supplies under a $750 billion EU-US trade deal to prevent widespread flight cancellations during the summer travel season.
The Airports Council International warns of a systemic shortage unless the Strait reopens soon, as it handles 20% of global crude oil. Jet fuel prices have surged 95% since attacks began on February 28, straining refineries and prompting restrictions at Italian airports.
Current stocks vary: three months in the UK, four in Portugal, up to eight in France and Ireland. Scandinavian airline SAS has already canceled 1,000 April flights, with London, Paris, and Rome at high risk for peak-season disruptions.
The July 2025 EU-US agreement commits to $750 billion in US LNG, oil, and nuclear fuels through 2028, explicitly aimed at diversifying from Russian supplies amid Hormuz disruptions. European refineries plan increased jet fuel output, while airlines demand EU emergency measures like suspending carbon rules and aviation taxes.
This shift bolsters short-term operational resilience but heightens long-term reliance on US energy, critical for averting a summer travel meltdown affecting millions of passengers and airline revenues.