European airlines confront escalating pressures from war-induced fuel costs and stringent EU green regulations. The ReFuelEU Aviation initiative, effective January 2025, mandates fuel suppliers to blend at least 2% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) with conventional jet fuel, rising to 5% by 2030, 6% thereafter, and 70% by 2050, including sub-quotas for synthetic fuels from 0.7% in 2030.
Simultaneously, the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) phases out free allowances entirely by January 2026, compelling airlines to buy credits for all intra-EEA, Swiss, and UK flights’ CO2 emissions. SAF, which cuts emissions versus kerosene, remains scarce and costs up to ten times more, compounded by documentation hurdles under ReFuelEU for ETS compliance.
Industry leaders voice opposition. Air France-KLM CEO Ben Smith stated at the 2025 A4E summit, “the SAF does not exist, … we don’t see a path toward the amount we need to reach the mandate.” Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary calls for delaying the mandate, while IATA opposed it in a December 2025 release. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné predicted at Davos that EU lawmakers might dilute rules, mirroring carmakers’ success in softening 2035 combustion engine bans.
Efforts persist, as Wizz Air partnered with Firefly in 2023 for 525,000 tonnes of SAF over 15 years from 2028. Yet, non-existent commercial synthetic fuel plants threaten 2030 targets, risking multimillion-euro fines amid geopolitical fuel spikes.