The International Energy Agency sees the oil market moving from wartime supply stress to a surplus in 2027, with output rising far faster than demand. Supply is projected to add about 8 million barrels a day against demand growth of about 2 million, leaving inventories less exposed and pulling refined-fuel prices lower if Middle East flows normalize.
For airlines, that points to softer jet-fuel input costs after a period of tightness linked to the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption. The near-term setup stays uneven, with stocks still under pressure before any glut forms.
Pricing relief may arrive in 2027, not this summer.