IATA has cut its 2026 global airline industry profit forecast to US$23.0 billion, saying war-related disruptions in the Middle East and higher fuel prices are eroding earnings. The updated outlook was released in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday at the association’s annual general meeting.
The new forecast is well below IATA’s previous projection of about US$41 billion and compares with an expected US$45 billion in 2025. IATA also said industry profit margins are now expected to fall to 2.0%, from 4.2%, as a 70% rise in jet fuel prices weighs on airline bottom lines.
The association expects fuel costs to climb to about US$350 billion in 2026 from US$252 billion in 2025, based on an average Brent crude price of US$95 per barrel and jet fuel at US$152 per barrel. IATA said the Middle East is likely to move into a collective net loss in 2026 because of weak demand and operational disruption.