Ryanair has warned that the escalating conflict in the Middle East and Gulf region could significantly disrupt European aviation this summer, with jet fuel supply and route viability emerging as key risks.
Chief executive Michael O’Leary said the airline is holding daily calls with fuel suppliers, who currently expect supplies to remain stable only until the end of May. If hostilities continue beyond April, he cautioned that Europe could face jet fuel shortages from early June, potentially affecting 10% to 20% of available supply during the peak months. Ryanair has signaled that in a worst-case scenario it may be forced to cancel about one in ten flights, prioritizing airports where fuel remains available. The UK is seen as particularly exposed because of its reliance on oil imports from Kuwait.
The warning comes as the wider impact of the crisis on European aviation becomes clearer. According to Eurocontrol, traffic between Europe and the Middle East has fallen 59% since hostilities began on 28 February, with extensive airspace closures, diversions and emergency repatriation flights. Fuel prices have already risen by more than 130%, a surge that could pressure weaker carriers and accelerate consolidation in the sector.
At the same time, short-haul demand within Europe has climbed. Ryanair reports a surge in Easter bookings to European destinations as travelers avoid the Middle East, mirroring Eurocontrol data showing a 13% increase in intra-European traffic. O’Leary said bookings to the region have collapsed, while flights within Europe are “booming,” though he does not currently foresee a fundamental long-term shift in demand if the conflict eases before summer.
Other airlines are also preparing for sustained disruption. Lufthansa has noted early warning signs of fuel constraints at some Asian airports and is monitoring kerosene supply outside Europe. Some carriers, including SAS and Vietnam Airlines, have already cancelled flights amid high fuel prices and operational uncertainty, while several European operators have sharply reduced or entirely suspended services to Middle Eastern destinations.
Eurocontrol warns that if airspace closures and elevated fuel prices persist, European networks will continue to be reshaped by reroutings, longer flight times and higher operating costs. Analysts expect this could make certain routes uneconomical and weigh on passenger demand, particularly if broader economic growth slows alongside the energy shock.