Global air passenger demand rose 3.8% in January 2026 compared to January 2025, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), increased amid a 3.5% rise in capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK). The load factor reached 82.0%, a record high for January and up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year.
International demand grew 5.9%, with capacity up 5.8% and load factor at 82.5%, gaining 0.1 percentage point. Domestic demand edged up 0.1%, despite a 0.4% capacity decline, lifting the load factor to 81.2%, plus 0.4 percentage points.
Regionally, Middle Eastern carriers led with 7.2% demand growth, capacity up 7.8%, load factor 83.2%. European carriers saw 6.3% demand increase, capacity 5.7% higher, load factor 79.4%. Asia-Pacific airlines reported 4.4% demand growth, capacity up 5.2%, load factor 85.9%. North American carriers grew demand 3.4%, capacity 2.6%, load factor 82.3%.
IATA Director General Willie Walsh attributed the moderated pace partly to Lunar New Year timing, noting schedule data show a 5.2% global seat capacity increase by March, the fastest since April 2024. Average fares are expected to fall in real terms through 2026 despite rising infrastructure charges, regulatory burdens, and energy transition costs. In 2025, new airline start-ups hit the slowest rate since 1999.